Ibn Erik
01-02-2010, 11:36
porque tem que ser salva.
eis aqui um artigo que vale a pena ler. é mais uma das razões porque interessa agora à Alemanha manter os PIGS no sistema.
mas a maior continua a ser a tentativa de criar um supermarco. nesta altura em que existe uma grande fuga de capitais da Europa (batsa ver o caso português) é importante que se salve o supermarco. isso implica salvar os PIGS. ;)
leiam que vale a pena:
Should Germany bail out Club Med or leave the euro altogether?
Germany faces a terrible dilemma. Either Europe's paymaster agrees to underwrite a Greek bail-out and drops its vehement opposition to a de facto EU economic government, treasury, and debt union, or the euro will start to unravel, and with it Germany's strategic investment in the post-war order.
The spike in yields on 10-year Greek bonds to 400 basis points above German Bunds has been shockingly swift – a warning to Britain, too, that markets can suddenly strike any country that takes creditors for granted.
We can argue over whether Greece, Portugal, or Spain are at risk of being forced out of the euro. But there is another nagging question: whether events will cause Germany and its satellites to withdraw, bequeathing the legal carcass of EMU to the Club Med bloc.
This is the only break-up scenario that makes much sense. A German exit would allow Club Med to uphold contracts in euros and devalue with least havoc to internal debt markets. The German bloc would enjoy a windfall gain. The D-Mark II would be stronger. Borrowing costs would fall. The North-South gap in competitiveness could be bridged with less disruption for both sides.
To be sure, Germany is happily placed in the current EMU system. By compressing wages for a decade it has stolen a march on EMU. Critics unfairly call this a beggar-thy-neighbour policy. It is simply the way Lutheran society operates, in deep contrast to the way Latin society operates – a cultural clash that should have given pause for thought before Europe's elites launched headlong into their adventure.
German goods are flooding the South. In the 12 months to November, Germany-Benelux had a current account surplus of $211bn: Spain had a deficit of $82bn, Italy $74bn, France $57bn, and Greece $37bn. German industry will not give up this edge lightly. However, the matter will in the end be decided by democracy. German citizens were given a pledge by their leaders in the 1990s that loss of the D-Mark would not lead to monetary disorder, or leave them liable for Club Med debt. That is the sacred contract of EMU.
"Politically," said Bundesbank chief Axel Weber, "it's not possible to tell voters that they are bailing out another country so that it can avoid painful austerity measures that they themselves have gone through. Such aid, whether conditional, or – even worse – unconditional, is counterproductive."
Dr Weber is right on both counts. Fresh loans for Greece can achieve nothing useful at this stage. Greece already has a public debt hurtling towards 138pc of GDP by 2012 (Standard & Poor's). It is already in a debt compound spiral. The EU elites have yet to acknowledge that Greece and much of Club Med need gifts – not loans – akin to transfers paid to East Germany after unification, or North Italian perma-subsidies to the Mezzogiorno.
mas leiam tudo aqui. (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/7119986/Should-Germany-bail-out-Club-Med-or-leave-the-euro-altogether.html)
é evidente que as taxas de juro dos PIGS vão ter que subir. mas a questão é saber se eles se mantêm no euro, caso elas subam bastante.
provavelmente o bail out da Grécia vai implicar a garantia da compra da sua dívida mas a taxas de juro mais altas. e dando tempo aos gregos (e demais PIGS) para baixar os seus pesados défices.
assim, por um lado vão garantir a solvência dos Estados despesistas e por outro lado, pressionam estes países, via mercado, a adoptarem medidas para acabar com a insustentável dívida e despesa que apresentam.
assim o euro é salvo, o supermarco continua a ser o objectivo e não se perdem mercados-chave para as exportações alimárias.
cabecinhas pensadoras... ;):D:D
eis aqui um artigo que vale a pena ler. é mais uma das razões porque interessa agora à Alemanha manter os PIGS no sistema.
mas a maior continua a ser a tentativa de criar um supermarco. nesta altura em que existe uma grande fuga de capitais da Europa (batsa ver o caso português) é importante que se salve o supermarco. isso implica salvar os PIGS. ;)
leiam que vale a pena:
Should Germany bail out Club Med or leave the euro altogether?
Germany faces a terrible dilemma. Either Europe's paymaster agrees to underwrite a Greek bail-out and drops its vehement opposition to a de facto EU economic government, treasury, and debt union, or the euro will start to unravel, and with it Germany's strategic investment in the post-war order.
The spike in yields on 10-year Greek bonds to 400 basis points above German Bunds has been shockingly swift – a warning to Britain, too, that markets can suddenly strike any country that takes creditors for granted.
We can argue over whether Greece, Portugal, or Spain are at risk of being forced out of the euro. But there is another nagging question: whether events will cause Germany and its satellites to withdraw, bequeathing the legal carcass of EMU to the Club Med bloc.
This is the only break-up scenario that makes much sense. A German exit would allow Club Med to uphold contracts in euros and devalue with least havoc to internal debt markets. The German bloc would enjoy a windfall gain. The D-Mark II would be stronger. Borrowing costs would fall. The North-South gap in competitiveness could be bridged with less disruption for both sides.
To be sure, Germany is happily placed in the current EMU system. By compressing wages for a decade it has stolen a march on EMU. Critics unfairly call this a beggar-thy-neighbour policy. It is simply the way Lutheran society operates, in deep contrast to the way Latin society operates – a cultural clash that should have given pause for thought before Europe's elites launched headlong into their adventure.
German goods are flooding the South. In the 12 months to November, Germany-Benelux had a current account surplus of $211bn: Spain had a deficit of $82bn, Italy $74bn, France $57bn, and Greece $37bn. German industry will not give up this edge lightly. However, the matter will in the end be decided by democracy. German citizens were given a pledge by their leaders in the 1990s that loss of the D-Mark would not lead to monetary disorder, or leave them liable for Club Med debt. That is the sacred contract of EMU.
"Politically," said Bundesbank chief Axel Weber, "it's not possible to tell voters that they are bailing out another country so that it can avoid painful austerity measures that they themselves have gone through. Such aid, whether conditional, or – even worse – unconditional, is counterproductive."
Dr Weber is right on both counts. Fresh loans for Greece can achieve nothing useful at this stage. Greece already has a public debt hurtling towards 138pc of GDP by 2012 (Standard & Poor's). It is already in a debt compound spiral. The EU elites have yet to acknowledge that Greece and much of Club Med need gifts – not loans – akin to transfers paid to East Germany after unification, or North Italian perma-subsidies to the Mezzogiorno.
mas leiam tudo aqui. (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/7119986/Should-Germany-bail-out-Club-Med-or-leave-the-euro-altogether.html)
é evidente que as taxas de juro dos PIGS vão ter que subir. mas a questão é saber se eles se mantêm no euro, caso elas subam bastante.
provavelmente o bail out da Grécia vai implicar a garantia da compra da sua dívida mas a taxas de juro mais altas. e dando tempo aos gregos (e demais PIGS) para baixar os seus pesados défices.
assim, por um lado vão garantir a solvência dos Estados despesistas e por outro lado, pressionam estes países, via mercado, a adoptarem medidas para acabar com a insustentável dívida e despesa que apresentam.
assim o euro é salvo, o supermarco continua a ser o objectivo e não se perdem mercados-chave para as exportações alimárias.
cabecinhas pensadoras... ;):D:D